6/16/2023 0 Comments Nytimes needle![]() ![]() And it has proven true, as far as I can tell, basically everywhere in the country among Latino voters, to varying degrees. We learned that early in the night in Miami-Dade County, where no one had the President doing as well as he did. The polls always showed the President faring better among nonwhite, and particularly Hispanic, voters than he did four years ago, but the magnitude of the shift was way beyond expectations. It was hinted at in the preëlection polls. The swing towards Trump in Hispanic areas across the country is extraordinary. What was the biggest surprise to you when the results came in, or as they have come in? ![]() (Full disclosure: Cohn and I worked together at The New Republic, and are close friends.) During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed how the pandemic affected polling, the role of data in election coverage, and the Times’ contentious “election needle.” I recently spoke by phone with Nate Cohn, a domestic correspondent at the New York Times who spearheaded the newspaper’s polling this cycle. Though Biden won the three Midwest battlegrounds-Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania-where Trump eked out victories in 2016, and the former Vice-President is likely to emerge victorious in other previously red states such as Georgia and Arizona, major networks took several days to call the election results, and what looked like a landslide for much of the campaign ended in another scramble for electors. The margins in crucial swing states, however, were closer than polling averages suggested that they would be. Last week, Joe Biden was elected the forty-sixth President of the United States, defeating Donald Trump by what is likely to be several percentage points nationwide.
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